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Corbett’s Ten Percent challenge

Looking at the statewide vote results (votes Corbett received compared to votes Jim Cawley received) and at counties where Bob Guzzardi appeared on the ballot opposite governor Tom Corbett, it appears there’s about ten percent of Republican voters who are seriously disaffected with Corbett.

These are the voters who could not bring themselves to vote for Corbett, even while voting for other Republicans, or who actively wrote in alternative names.  York County has a surprisingly high number of about 25%.

Are these the angry Penn Staters, whose murky ghost has been hovering in Corbett’s background since the fictional Louis Freeh report sank the beloved institution known as Joe Paterno, and took down his creation (PSU), too?  Corbett seemed to join in the blaming of Paterno for the predations of Jerry Sandusky, or at least his actions and statements left many Penn Staters wondering if he did. 

Or are these voters associated with some of Corbett’s better known “Oopsy” moments, like personally standing at a lectern, reading glasses and pencil in hand, roll-call strong arming the Republican State Committee into reluctantly endorsing Steve Welch for US Senate. Republican voters later overwhelmingly rejected the very urban, effete Welch, and embraced muddy boots, down to earth coal miner Tom Smith.

Maybe these are voters affiliated with people who were once close to Corbett, but who did not see ‘promises kept’ at the personal level.

It’s impossible now to know exactly who these voters are, and whether or not they can be brought back into the Republican fold in time for November’s general election.  Plenty of polls, voter surveys, and canvassing are going to occur in the coming weeks, in search of the necessary mix of voters to get Corbett into his second term.

One thing is for sure: In Democrat-heavy Pennsylvania, Corbett wins only with a fully unified Republican party behind him. Right now, he’s got real work to do to achieve that.

1 Comment

  • May 21st 201410:05
    by Josh

    Judging by what I know about XXXXXX County trends, Corbett is not looking good. The Social Conservatives ran a candidate against me for my XXXXXXXX Seat, and they had a heavy hitter in for a first time XXXXXXXXX seat. Both of their candidates campaigned vigorously. They were both defeated. This could indicate that even if Corbett wins their support, (and his position on Gay Marriage going forward is a key factor) they are not the powerhouse they were in past elections.

    Typically, A Republican Governor in XXXXXXXX County leads the ticket in vote totals. This time, [a congressman] of all people, was the top vote getter. Cawley pulled more votes than Corbett. Another interesting thing was the extremely high number of write in votes against Corbett.  This reflects deep seated sentiment. These votes could have been for Wolf, Donald Duck or the candidate they knocked off the ballot [Guzzardi]. The bottom line is that there are Republican Voters out there that are passionate enough about coming out for primarily uncontested seats who are willing to throw away their vote for Governor just to make a statement.  

    I must agree with you  Josh, spin is spin and election day votes are concrete evidence of voter sentiment. At a minimum, Corbett has an extremely uphill battle. He cannot make any more mistakes like his pickup truck ad. Like it or not, if Wolf continues to get his media campaign right and Corbett continues to get his wrong, his only chance will evaporate quickly. I really don’t think that Corbett can pull this off with a negative ad campaign, as the chess board plays, he is backed in a corner on using the negative campaign strategy. He must identify the voter blocks of past supporters that are not likely to support him  at this point and appeal to them with a positive message. Using a “Consider the alternative” campaign is not going to work. Past supporters who are on the fence will perceive this more like a threat and I think the Wolf team is ready for this.

    The shame of this whole situation is when you consider all of the missed opportunities by the Corbett’s people, it is hard not to  feel angry!

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